The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts that India's GDP growth would slow to 7.5 percent in 2022-23, down from a projected 8.9 percent in 2021-22, but perk up in 2023-2024 to reach 8%. The ADB has taken into account the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on India, which will be mostly indirect due to rising oil costs, and has estimated that the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic will decrease as vaccination rates rise. Although rising oil prices will put upward pressure on inflation, the impact will be mitigated by fuel subsidies and oil refineries stocking up on cheap Russian crude, according to the ADB, which forecasts an average inflation rate of 5.8% in 2022-23 and 5% in 2023-24.

Key Points

• The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts that India's GDP growth would slow to 7.5 percent in 2022-23, down from a projected 8.9 percent in 2021-22, but perk up in 2023-2024 to reach 8%

• Although rising oil prices will put upward pressure on inflation, the impact will be mitigated by fuel subsidies and oil refineries stocking up on cheap Russian crude, according to the ADB,